The UAE has agreed to participate in OPEC

According to FocusEconomics, oil production in the UAE will be higher in 2024 than in 2023 as the country receives a higher OPEC+ quota from the second quarter. As a result of the UAE's agreement in early 2023 to participate in OPEC+ 's plan to curb output, the UAE's overall crude oil production in the first 11 months of 2023 was 3.6% lower than in the same period in 2022. The UAE has pledged to cut oil production by 160,000 BPD in the first quarter of this year (about 5.0% of the 2023 average), but OPEC+ quotas will increase significantly from the second quarter of this year. The agency has cut its 2024 forecast for the UAE for four consecutive months as the recovery in crude oil production may not be as strong as previously expected.

FocusEconomics analysts said the UAE's GDP growth in 2022 was the fastest in more than a decade, but was followed by weakness in 2023, with economic growth in January-September equivalent to only a third of the same period in 2022, but should rise above the 2013-2022 10-year average by 2024. It will grow by around 3.7% and by 4.0% in 2025.

The UAE's monetary policy priority is to maintain the dirham exchange rate against the US dollar. As a result, the country largely follows whatever monetary policy moves the Fed makes. In 2024, the UAE should lower its benchmark interest rate in conjunction with the Federal Reserve. The base rate is expected to be 4.32% by the end of 2024 and 3.23% by the end of 2025. Due to high base effects and past interest rate hikes, UAE inflation is expected to moderate in 2024 compared to 2023. Consumer prices rose an average of 2.3 percent in 2024, unchanged from a month earlier, and 2.1 percent in 2025.